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2020/06/03 (Wednesday)
When retail investors are greedy, correction of market is coming soon......
6/2 Bitcoin (BTC) break out of the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle, soon bulls pushed price up to $10000 resistnace area and the high is $10299. However, bulls are not able to keep the price above $10000, the Bitcoin is correcting and establish the congestion area between $9400-9700.
Interestingly, when I analyzed the LSR data, I find long position of retail investor is increasing quickly.
Case# During 6/2 to 6/3 (Downside -899USD)
LSR 0.86 -> 1.3
Long position of retail investor is increasing rapidly from 46.23% to 56.44% (Bullish).
Conversely, long position of market maker (or Institutional investors) is decreasing from 54.29% to 53.73% (Bearish).
This case indicates market makers or institutional investors always open in opposite position to retail investors. When retail investors opened a lot of long positions, the BTC price usually starts to fall because the fuel of short-squeeze (bullish) is not enough. That is, when retail investors are greedy, correction of market is coming soon. There are some similar cases marked with blue and yellow arrows in the below picture, downside including 5/8 ->5/10, 5/18 -> 5/25, 6/2 ->6/3 and upside is 5/27 -> 6/2.
Hence, we should keep an eye on the position trends of retail investors.
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As an analyst, I think that I can't predict the direction of market, but I am ready for a strategy of bullish or bearish.
Yu-Shiuan Chen
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2020/05/29 (Friday)
#Technical Analysis of BTC(D)
5/28 The bulls push BTC price back to the ascending channel temporarily. When the price rise to $9620, the decreasing volume attracted profit booking from the short-term traders.
Currently, there are two probability for the corrective target of wave 4, $8150-8200(0.618) or $7200-7280(0.382).
If bulls able to keep the price above $8150-8200(0.618) or $7200-7280(0.382), the target of wave 5 is $11600.After completing the wave 5, BTC pair will go into corrective wave A,B,and C.
MACD indicator indicate that the column below the zero axis has begun to converge, the fast and slow lines will form the golden fork above the zero axis, and the KD indicator near to 50.
The key point that bulls challenge $10000 is still the price/volume, volume should be replenished.
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